University Final Year Project: Malaria Model

Rice agriculture is ever expanding in Sub-Saharan Africa due to increasing demand, but its cultivation represents a possible risk factor for malaria. Rice fields are generally irrigated year round to maintain growth even during the dry season. As a result, standing water - in which malaria-transmitting mosquitoes lay their eggs - is more readily available all year if rice paddies are present. However, the mosquito species which lay their eggs in rice paddies are generally thought to be less effective transmitters of malaria than those that use naturally-occurring seasonal sources of standing water. I developed a compartmental model composed of a series of delay differential equations to find out how the increasing presence of rice paddies might affect rates of malaria, and found that the answer varied depending on the pre-existing malaria rate as well as mosquito biting rates.

Overall, I really enjoyed this project from start to finish. I was highly motivated to increase my understanding of a healthcare topic as important as malaria, and I felt that the process of formulating the model really forced me to understand the mode of transmission deeply on a fundamental level. I also had a lot of fun coding the model in R and coming up with ways to present my (fairly complex) results clearly and attractively.